Revenge is the one of the most misused handicapping tool by NFL bettors but also one of the most hyped about for the masses. You hear it all of the time from die hard fans and handicappers that a certain NFL team will win because they are out for revenge.
The theory that a team will play better or with more motivation if they lost the previous matchup against their current opponent simply doesn’t make sense. This is especially true in the NFL (compared to College Football), where division foes play each other twice during the regular season.
There are some times where revenge does make sense as a motivational factor, but it doesn’t occur very often. Using revenge as a motivational factor should only apply in two major instances – the first being if one team was eliminated from the playoffs by their current opponent. The second is if a big favorite was embarrassed by an inferior team within their division.
A perfect example of this happened last year when the Cleveland Browns came into Cincinnati for a Thursday night game. The Browns were a big underdog on the road but upset the Bengals 24-3 while holding Cincinnati to 165 total yards. The Bengals returned the favor a few weeks later by shutting out the Browns 30-0 , holding Cleveland to just 107 total yards in the blowout win and cover. That was by far Cincinnati’s best game of the season and their biggest margin of victory for the year.
This week, Denver hosts Cincinnati as the best sports betting software and sportsbook list Denver as a two and half point favorite. The first matchup between these teams was memorable as the Broncos returned a fumble for a game-winning score (with 21 seconds left. Many NFL bettors will back Kansas City this Sunday because they are playing with revenge, and while the Chiefs might cover the spread, the numbers point in a different direction.
Since Peyton Manning joined the Broncos, Denver has won all seven meetings against the Bengals with all seven victories coming by at least seven points.
In the three games Kansas City faced a Manning-led Broncos team while playing with in-season revenge, they have lost by margins of 35, 7, and 13 points – failing to cover the pointspread in all three games. This history hold far more weight than backing Kansas City simply because they lost the previous matchup.
According to most sportsbook pay per head provider, There are far more valuable statistics to look at when handicapping the second matchup of the season. Researching how teams succeeded or failed in both rushing and passing yards is a good indicator on how the teams will game plan for the second matchup, and how successful those game plans will be.
Also be sure to account for any injuries to key players (for example, Kansas City had RB Jamaal Charles in that first matchup, but will not have him for this Sunday’s game).
Revenge is useful when applied correctly, but statistics tend to be a more accurate indicator. Keep this in mind when going over your NFL handicapping this weekend!
